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de Kabat Racing Research

Specialist in statistical research for the Thoroughbred industry

Magic Millions 2017

The vast number of Golden Slippers winners to come out of the Magic Millions Gold Coast Yearling Sale is verging on being ridiculous, writes Renée Geelen, but it’s a tag that the Queensland-headquartered sales company will happily accept.

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When Phelan Ready won in 2009, Magic Millions took their tally of Golden Slipper winners to five in seven years. And that’s not counting the winners they sold prior to 2003. Just take a moment to reflect on that. There are 15,000 foals born every year in Australia. This sale catalogues around 6% of them. And from that small pool have emerged a continual flow of winners of Australia’s most lucrative and respected juvenile event.

Since then, Magic Millions have sold three more; including the last two years – Capitalist and Vancouver – and both for under $200,000.

But this sale is about more than just one race. Magic Millions have made it easy to talk about the Golden Slipper; the results speak for themselves. In the time the Magic Millions Gold Coast Sale has produced Pierro, Vancouver and Capitalist; their vendors have offered a total of 16 Gr1 winners and 129 stakes winners. Gold Coast graduates include horses like Horse of the Year Winx, Global Glamour, Awesome Rock, Lasqueti Spirit, and Stratum Star. That’s just for the 2016/17 season so far – we still have the Magic Millions carnival, Sydney Autumn and many more big races to come.

And is it any wonder that this sale provides racehorses of such depth and class? A simple look at the catalogue highlights how much vendors believe in this Summer auction as a source of top horses. The 2017 Magic Millions Gold Coast Yearling sale includes 210 yearlings out of Group or Listed-winning mares, and for those buyers who like to see a proven broodmare, to dip in the pool of success, so to speak, there are 194 siblings to Group and stakes-winners, including  Stay with Me, Sebring, Capitalist, Buffering, Japonisme, and Awesome Rock.

In this year’s Gold Coast Sale there is just so much choice, with options galore for buyers trying to pick the eyes out of the catalogue. Without a doubt, many of these horses will write their way into racing’s history books. The question, as always, is which ones?

The full feature is here.

Melbourne Cup 2012

The first seven horses home in the Melbourne Cup were bred in Ireland.  Last year’s winner was born in France.  Where is the logic in trying to have the world’s best staying race in a nation that doesn’t value stayers enough to produce one of world class quality?  And does the Cup represent our staying stock or is it a race in isolation?

This article was published in Breeding & Racing in 2012.

 

Beyond Danehill

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Pictured: Danehill

We all know what an amazing influence Danehill has had on the Australian racing scene, but what about the shuttles in general?  Who has been the best and can we learn anything from analysing the worst ones?  And given the current trend towards locally bred and raced stallions, should the industry still be considering to shuttle stallions at all?

This article was published in Breeding & Racing in 2012.

 

Picking a Stallion (2012)

It’s that time of year again.  Time to sort through all the stallion options and find that one bloke who is the perfect match for your broodmare.  Time to weigh up whether you use a brand spanking new unproven bloke, or go for an older fellow who has runs on the board.  The benefits of new are that stallions tend to leave their best crops in their first three crops, but the downside is that 40% of new stallions NEVER leave a stakes winner.  So if you feel your breeding plan can’t cope with that kind of failure rate, it’s best to look at the proven chaps.  But how do you rate the proven stallions?

Published in Breeding & Racing in 2012.

 

2012 ANZ Sires under $10,000

While it is generally true that a stallion is “cheap for a reason”, it is not automatically true that the reason equates to lack of racetrack success.  But for breeders who have less to spend – and let’s face it, that’s most of us – it is a matter of sorting out the wheat from the chaff.

Once you have a breeding plan, it is time to figure out which of the 366 sires in this price bracket will help you get to your goal.

Breeding & Racing’s 2012 Stallions for under $10,000.

 

Champion racemare or her daughters?

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Pictured: Champion racemare Urban Sea with her Derby winning son Sea the Stars

Already the question is being asked “will Black Caviar carry on as a broodmare or will she disappoint?”  And further that will it be Black Caviar’s daughters, rather than herself, that will truly make their mark on the Stud Book.  This myth has been perpetrated by people misquoting the Italian breeder/trainer Frederico Tesio, believing he said that champion racemares make useless broodmares but their daughters are better prospects because they have all the champions’ qualities as well as enough nervous energy for their foals.

This article was published in Breeding & Racing in 2012.

 

Arion’s Data Centre

One of the features on the Arion Pedigrees website is the “Data Centre”.  This function allows a user to search the extensive Arion database for a variety of information including race acceptances, recent racing results and auction sales results.  Designed to provide quick access to a wide variety of information, the Data Centre includes a mixture of free and subscriber information.  Auction sales data is free and can be accessed without a login by simply clicking on any of the green links in the Data Centre.

This article was published in Breeding & Racing in 2012.

 

Only the good die young

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Pictured: Gold Brose

When a young stallion dies, someone usually says “well, he’s bound to be good now”.  Is there any truth in this, or is it just something polite to say when someone has lost a beloved stallion in order to offset their grief just a little bit.  There are enough examples to make it seem like it might just be a thing. A quick hunt around the internet found several forum topics dedicated to the topic and some of the names that popped up included:  El Qahira, Dr Grace, Adraan, Blues Traveller, Alannon, Lion Hunter, Iglesia, Shot of Thunder, and Gold Brose.

This article was published in Breeding & Racing in 2012.

 

2016 Freshman Yearling Sires Feature

There is a theory in racing that when the economy is bullish, people tend to gravitate towards freshman sires, writes Renée Geelen.

That was certainly true last year, with the record for the top priced yearling by a freshman being broken by the $1.6 million Sepoy colt from Ancient Song, now named War Hero.

It seems likely that 2016 is going to prove interesting for freshman yearling sires, particularly as the economy is in an odd state of flux, depending on whose point of view you prefer. Real estate keeps on flying, but mining is wobbling….

The full article is here.

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