I wasn’t going to do Melbourne Cup tips this year, because it’s been over a year since I did any work for Aushorse Marketing. When I did consulting work for them, one of the tasks I had was to track Australian bred horses racing overseas. The consequence was that I had a decent overview of international form – something that is really helpful when analysing the Cup field.
Without that background knowledge, I was planning to step away from the Cup. With all the imports, it’s really hard to get a handle each horse. However, I couldn’t help myself, and if you follow me on facebook, you will have seen a very brief overview of the field. I’ve copied it here and put the winner in bold.
Cross Counter – last year’s winner in form. weight might be an issue
Mer de Glace – in form stayer. looks the best chance
Master of Reality – another international that punters haven’t seen in ok form. meh
Mirage Dancer – consistent type
Southern France – consistent and beat Downdraft and Master of Reality 2 starts ago
Hunting Horn – solid preparation for international and last start winner in Aus. chance.
Latrobe – another international that punters haven’t seen in ok form. meh
Mustajeer – not the worst
Rostropovich – out of form
Twilight Payment – not quite in this class but goes ok.
Finche – solid local preparation. chance
Prince of Arran – last start winner and proven at the trip. good chance
Raymond Tusk – another international that punters haven’t seen in ok form. meh
Downdraft – last start winner who is consistent. solid chance
Magic Wand – consistent but might not stay the 2 miles
Neufbosc – out of form
Sound – can stay the 2 miles but out of form at the moment
Surprise Baby – last start winner whose sire won this race, in consistent form. excellent light weight chance
Constantinople – consistent lately without winning, probably won’t stay the 2 miles
Il Paradiso – another international that punters haven’t seen in ok form. meh
Steel Prince – would be a surprise on current form
The Chosen One – maybe at this weight but not as classy as some of the others
Vow and Declare – excellent light weight chance. solid second behind Mer De Glace last start and carries a lot less weight this time. can stay, good chance
Youngster – talent with light weight, but has only been knocking around lately. would have to improve a lot.